Actually, I lied in Church this morning - small “white lie.”
The preacher, a retired army general, referring to the Lekki and VI
floods, mentioned a disturbing dream he had had a couple of years ago in
which the entire VGC and Lekki areas were completely submerged.
At the time of his dream, I worked for Chevron in a role as Geographic
Information Systems Team Lead between 2000 and 2006. The Company itself
is situated in the heart of the Lekki Peninsula. I also lived around the
Alpha Beach area at the time.
The learned general approached me
and narrated his concern. He asked what I knew about the geologies and
situational geographics of the area.
••• Before his dream, my concern about a possible natural disaster in the area was already established.
Before going to work, I had jogged every morning, often to the Alpha
beach behind our residence. It amazed me, at the time, just by mere
visual awareness, how each year, the Atlantic claimed a significant
portion of the beach in a determined advance. No one measured!
Again, every year, we experienced an ocean surge in the area. I noticed
that each year, the surge advanced into the Igbo Efon area significantly
further than the preceding year. No one measured.
••• Third,
during the five years I appeared live on Silverbird TV, there were
times, after an overnight rainfall, I literally swam with my SUV to the
partially submerged TV station behind the Jakande Area.
That is
not even where I am going. While waiting for my slot on TV, I would go
to the Beach behind STV to meditate. Friends, within a period of 5
years, I saw the ocean claim 5 or 6 rows of coconut palm trees lining
the beach! That would have been about 30 meters in 5 years! No one was
measuring! Why measure such things when "God is in control?"
Well, then, using the available historical sub-meter pixel satellite
imagery of the area and a digital elevation model, I did a cursory study
of the peninsula. What I saw startled me. (But I must state upfront
that this was not a thorough scientific enquiry that is critical for
understanding the gravity of a disaster lurking in the distance.)
••• Number One: Lekki is completely flat - there’s very insignificant
variation in altitude. Two: Lekki is somewhat below sea level. A
combination of those two factors meant that a mere 50 cm rise in the
Atlantic ocean level could rapidly build a handshake between the ocean
and the Lagoon. I hate to imagine the implication to the VI-Lekki-Ajah
corridor.
But who cares? And who should care when “God is in control” as we say in Nigeria. No one will measure.
••• About the time I worked in Chevron, the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) had estimated a very conservative forecast of rise
in ocean levels of 65 cm by 2100. That has since been adjusted to over
100 cm.
We may say, “Oh 2100 is a long way ahead!” And that is
what kills the “Black Man!” (pardon the racial cliché). Lack of
foresight! Poor planning. Thinking and living for the moment only. No
one is measuring.
Well, the bad news is that scientists are not
sure how fast or how soon this 100 cm rise will happen and what other
geological events other than polar ice melting could trigger the rise.
••• We saw a little rainfall a couple of days and panicked. Like the
behind of a hen when the breeze blows, we were confronted by our
nakedness and utter helplessness with just a little rain. How about if
it rained 40 days and 40 nights?
Here is the worst tragedy of all: We're not learning!
Uka Igwe, my boyhood friend, posted what I thought was the most
brilliant commentary on the Lekki-VI floods on his Facebook wall this
morning, Said he:
“We have recently been inundated with pictures
of flooding all over Lekki in Lagos, there have also been stories of
continuous rain for nearly a week. The pictures are distressing
especially for the people who live in Lekki, Victoria Island, Aja etc.
“However what has been missing seems to be any structured reports of
the amount of rainfall that has caused this. How many millimeters of
rainfall has caused this amount of havoc.
This kind of
information is invaluable in proffering a solution to the problem. I
hate to think that perhaps there is no such information available. Right
there in Victoria Island is the National Institute of Oceanography and
Marine Research. I shudder to think that even they don't have the data.”
That, my friends, is the tragedy of the Nigerian situation. Someone who
works at the Agency that Uka referenced actually confirmed that the
data doesn’t exist! In his depressing words, the Federal Agency, like
others, is there “just to receive allocation and salary!”
•••
Listen, people, it is impossible to run a civilization on haunch and
feelings! A poor country will remain a poor country UNTIL they begin to
make RESEARCH and DATA-DRIVEN decisions!
I’m terrified to
imagine that no one is capturing data on these floods! I’m terrified
that no agency is on TV showing us an impact map of the event! Because
none exists.
••• Nature is so kind. The Vanguard Newspaper report
of July 8 began with “As usual flood ravaged Lekki, Victoria Island …
after many days of down pour….”
Did you notice the “As usual?”
Each year, the Lekki-VGC-VI corridor receives a yellow card. How many
more yellow cards before the red, no one knows. I’m not a Murphy
evangelist but from experience if a red might come, it will come. It’s
just a matter of when.
About the lie.
The preacher said, “I hope this is not the reason Ogbo moved out of the Lekki area.”
My lie: “Not really. Lekki and VGC are for the big boys! And I’m not a big boy yet.”
I actually ran away from the area but I didn't want to sound as if the
people living there were not smart. We have the cream of Nigeria in that
axis. For all I care, I might just have been a coward - what our people
call fear-fear.
•••Nevertheless, Lagos has zero natural disaster
contingency plan as many families discovered over the weekend. No one
came for you as you watched your beautiful sitting room turning into a
fish pond.
No one has even mentioned insurance in the narratives.
Same thing in Port Harcourt. Aba Road is to Port Harcourt what
testicles are to a man. Hold him 'there' and he throws up his hands in
surrender. If a disaster sinks Aba Road 2 million residents will be
trapped in a rabbit hole.
••• If the Lagos government would
listen, there needs to be an urgent thorough interdisciplinary study of
the State involving scientists, geologists, soil scientists, satellite
remote sensing experts, GIS, oceanographers, marine biologists,
anthropologists, computer scientists and so on. There are analytical and
predictive tools to model the next 5, 10, 50, 100 year scenarios and
plan intelligently.
••• At best, my people of Lekki, VGC, Ajah
and VI, please stay as dry as you possibly can. That’s what Facebook
tells me whenever the rain is about to fall.
May God bless and keep you safe!
FACEBOOK
Monday, July 10, 2017
Wednesday, July 5, 2017
Our Biggest Problem Cannot be Solved by Restructuring by Femi Owolade
The Chinese Communist Revolution, which aimed to liberate the Chinese majority from the oppressive bourgeoisie, took place between 1945 and 1950. Having spearheaded the revolution, the founding father of modern China- Mao ZeDong was worried that the revolution did no more than replace old elites with new ones; that the pre-revolution bourgeoisie elements were gradually infiltrating the government & society at large- aiming to restore capitalism; and that only a revolution of culture would unseat and unsettle the ruling class and keep China in a state of perpetual revolution which, theoretically, would serve the interests of the majority, rather than a tiny privileged elite. As a result, Mao launched the cultural revolution in 1966. As opposed to the initial 1945-50 revolution which merely kept the Chinese bourgeoisie at bay for a period (1950-66), the cultural revolution was effectively gradual, planting the seeds required to disenable the imminent return of the bourgeoisie. Occupying a center stage in this cultural revolution, theatre was used as a political weapon for spreading communist ideas beneficial to the majority.
During the Cultural Revolution, the government elected an expert to take control of the theatre stage, and introduce revolutionary model operas. While traditional operas were banned, as they were considered feudalistic and bourgeoisie-friendly, the newly introduced revolutionary operas were actively promoted, to achieve revolutionary ends. Since then, the Chinese Cultural Revolution is said to have consolidated the changes wrought by the initial 1945-50 revolution and cleansed China from outdated traditions (in arts and other cultural fields) which favored the bourgeoisie, in a ‘modernist transformation’ that laid the foundation for future economic reforms. These reforms would catapult China into a 21st century economic success; the second largest economy in the world.
In present-day Nigeria, the demand for restructuring the country’s federalism is a much-discussed topic. This call is certainly not new. Since the 1954 Littleton constitution, which laid the foundation for classical federation in the country, the ethnic nationalities of Nigeria have pondered on whether they want to live together and if federalism will ever help these nationalities to realize it’s individual potentials. But while restructuring has always found habitation in the people’s political consciousness, we have always managed to omit one crucial factor: a restructured Nigeria, regardless of how sophisticated the new system is, will be populated by the same set of diverse and disunited persons.
The call for restructuring has developed a habit of comparing the Nigerian polity to that of the Communist Soviet federation, while ignoring the peculiarity of Nigeria’s ethnic composition. Since independence, Nigeria has had a unique problem of achieving solidarity in action and purpose, what many call nationalism, amidst hundreds of ethnic nationalities. At the beginning of the 1960s, there were 3000 ethnic nationalities in the world; about 1000 were represented in Africa and about 445 represented in Nigeria. To break this down, by the country’s independence, Nigeria, only the world’s 32nd largest country, housed 1/6 of the world’s ethnic groups. This peculiarity creates unique problems unknown to the experience of other peoples in the world. It is worth stating here that no western or eastern civilization has ever been encountered with this kind of problem. According to a report conducted in 1999, by The Economist: ‘Nigerians have no common vision of a nation-state called Nigeria, no sense of citizenship.’ Fragmentation of identities within our country seems to be our biggest problem, a problem that can’t be solved by restructuring. Like the Cultural Revolution in China, we can evolve a common vision and focus for this country by inculcating revolutionary nationalistic ideas and doing away with some of our outmoded traditions, especially those that overemphasis the cultural heritage of individual ethnic groups. To realize this ambition, we need to look no further than our Nollywood film industry.
With a long history dating back to the colonial era, Nollywood began to dominate screens across the African continent in the 2000s. In a remarkable achievement, with over 50 movies produced per week, Nollywood has grown to become the 3rd largest (some, e.g. UNESCO, even argue it’s the 2nd) movie industry in the world. It’s even a greater achievement that, while attaining this feat, Nollywood has managed to showcase the history and culture of certain ethnic groups in Nigeria, that of the igbos for instance. According to a report compiled by UNESCO, the Igbo language will become extinct, dead and buried, by 2025, if nothing is done to check its fast-declining use. For this reason, one must applaud Nollywood for producing Igbo films that attempt to rectify this problem. However, rather than being fixated on showcasing individual ethnic heritage, wouldn’t it be beneficial, to the Nigerian state, for Nollywood to produce movies marked with nationalist themes and Nigerian-friendly messages which cut across ethnic lines.
According to a report by Filmmakers Cooperative of Nigeria, every film in Nigeria has a potential audience of 15 million people in Nigerian, and about 5 million people outside the country. This shows a huge potential possessed by Nollywood to spearhead a nationalistic revolution, the type that can potentially break down ethnic boundaries.
When Nollywood films aren’t highlighting the cultural heritage of individual ethnic groups, they are busy infusing subtle messages fated to injure black pride. We need to start seeing messages geared towards promoting collective blackness (one which cuts across ethnic lines) in Nollywood films, and not the usual recycled white-man-good-christianity-defeats-black-man-evil-witchcraft. Make no mistake, there is certainly nothing wrong with being a Nigerian Christian. However, once you have a situation where children as young as 5 years are constantly fed this image of black being synonymous with Satan & Evil and white associated with Jesus & good, it renders useless any slim hope of a Nigerian-based black nationalism. Nollywood must do better. Our movie industry must become a political tool, used for promoting ethnic-free black nationalism.
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